由於最近工作有些變動，作業量增加許多（從職涯發展的角度應該算是好處！），因此網誌的投資月報先暫停更新，日後看怎樣再重啟。每個月的重要數據和新聞自己依然會收集到剪報資料夾，但為了更有效率運用時間，整理成月報發文這步驟就先省略。至於個別主題想放到網誌的依然會有空就寫。
2022年3月30日 星期三
2022年3月7日 星期一
投資月報 2022.02 俄羅斯揮兵烏克蘭，全球展開經濟制裁
本月摘要：俄羅斯揮兵烏克蘭，全球展開經濟制裁
❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數
NEW YORK, February 18, 2022…The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)
for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in January to 119.6 (2016 = 100),
following a 0.7 percent increase in December and a 0.8 percent
increase in November.
“The U.S. LEI posted a small decline in January, as the
Omicron wave, rising prices, and supply chain disruptions took their toll,”
said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of
Economic Research at The Conference Board.
“Initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumers’ outlook and declines in
stock prices, and the average work week in manufacturing all contributed to the
decline—the first since February 2021.
“Despite this month’s decline and a deceleration in the
LEI’s six-month growth rate, widespread strengths among the leading indicators
still point to continued, albeit slower, economic growth into the spring.
However, labor shortages, inflation, and the potential of new COVID-19 variants
pose risks to growth in the near term. The Conference Board forecasts GDP
growth for Q1 to slow somewhat from the very rapid pace of Q4 2021. Still, the
US economy is projected to expand by a robust 3.5 percent year-over-year in
2022—well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent.”
❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 02/28
❖本月大事
矽谷創投教父 Thiel 退出 Meta 董事會，傳投奔川普陣營
被踢出SWIFT後 俄羅斯央行宣布關鍵利率從9.5％調升至20％
灰犀牛成真。原本輿論認為俄國只是演戲威嚇，各種揣測漫天飛布，沒想到假戲真做，普丁假動作一堆後還是侵略烏克蘭了。財報季展開，但可能是緊縮壓力太大，無論公司表現好壞，只要是高估值科技股一律殺給你看。
❖股價動態
2022年2月3日 星期四
投資月報 2022.01 聯準會升息壓力、烏克蘭動盪使三大指數開局不利
本月摘要：面對通膨惡化，聯準會政策升息壓力，加上地緣政治烏克蘭動盪使三大指數開局不利
❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數
NEW YORK, January 21, 2022…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.8 percent in December to 120.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in November and a 0.7 percent increase in October.
“The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures—as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hikes—may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent—well above the pre-pandemic trend growth.”
“The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures—as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hikes—may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent—well above the pre-pandemic trend growth.”
❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 01/31
農曆春節新年快樂！時間進入2022開局第一個月，新年剛開始依然不平靜。聯準會為了遏止通膨今年或有多次升息，會使機構主力將資金抽離高估值的科技成長股，面對三大指數下跌，NASDAQ甚至跌入修正領域，對個股操作者來說難度又很高了。技術面看來線型走勢也偏空，這幾天的市場表現在低位大幅震盪，會轉守為攻或一路下殺也難講，有猴市的跡象難以捉摸，盤整期不知道會多久，而且緊接著一月財報季各公司陸續攤牌，可預期今年Q1應該依然很震，投資人的胃要撐住。今年才打第一局，高通膨環境與升息政策就已經充滿市場逆風了，之後的十一個月現在也不能硬要怎麼辦，且戰且走。
2022年1月8日 星期六
投資月報 2021.12 聯準會緊縮態勢，殺高估值中小科技股。三大指數表現亮眼
本月摘要：聯準會預告明年升息且縮表，高估值中小科技股續殺，但三大指數表現亮眼
❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數
NEW YORK, December 20, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 1.1 percent in November to 119.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in October and a 0.3 percent increase in September. “The U.S. LEI rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as well as a resurgence of COVID-19, pose risks to GDP growth in 2022. Still, the economic impact of these risks may be contained. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to strengthen in Q4 2021 to about 6.5 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still healthy rate of 2.2 percent in Q1 2022."
廣泛經濟依然以相當不錯的速度繼續攀高，或許這也是今年大盤各板塊平均都有不錯漲幅的關係。
❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 12/31
❖股價動態
大盤漲、拉權值、殺中小的一年。算是某種均值迴歸？2020年疫情受益板塊的SaaS產業大漲，結果到了2021年科技板塊一開始還不錯，但二月殺一波，好不容易五月打底，一路很有希望地復甦到十一月創新高，年底卻又因為通膨使得聯準會升息預警，許多高估值個股都從ATH高點殺了好幾成將近腰斬。對於2021年初就大幅買進的人來說，就算殺好幾成，仍能讓YTD有將近三～五成的傲人績效，但對半路才開始加倉的人來說無疑就是套在山頂（冷）。無論何種原因，對自己績效是個大逆風的一年。有很多想說的，但就留給年度回顧（等到2022年3月剛好滿五年）再來反省吧。
2021年12月6日 星期一
投資月報 2021.11 Omicron變種病毒擴散、Fed面對通膨惡化考慮加速縮減購債
本月摘要：Omicron新冠疫情變種擴散、Fed面對通膨惡化或加速縮減購債、成長股大幅回檔
❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數
NEW YORK, November 18, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.9 percent in October to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August.
“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into 2022 and may even gain some momentum in the final months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Gains were widespread among the leading indicators, with only the average workweek and consumers’ outlook making negative contributions.
“However, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges to growth and are not expected to dissipate until well into 2022. Despite these headwinds, The Conference Board forecasts growth to remain strong in the fourth quarter at around 5.0 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still historically robust rate of 2.6 percent in Q1 2022.”
❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 11/30
Jack Dorsey 再度卸下 Twitter CEO 職務
Vanguard將於明年初推出主動管理型中國股票基金 看中阿爾法機遇
❖股價動態
前幾個月靠著集中雲端個股大幅追趕，原本十一月上旬好不容易反攻領先大盤，結果持股財報陸續爆炸（數據很好，但市場硬是要殺？），加上Omicron變種疫情、Fed開始緊縮等大環境變動，績效又掉回大幅落後。這波回檔其實大盤跌幅普通（金融、能源特別有撐），但科技成長股卻殺得很誇張。說實話，每次碰到大跌真的就提不起勁寫網誌，會懷疑人生，覺得努力做那麼多研究都白費了，失敗的績效還有閱讀的價值嗎（雖然其實自己早知道股市非線性反饋，主動研究不見得反映在績效成長上，學到的經驗教訓不見得適用在每個股市週期），人性還是很難做到完全冷靜抽離客觀，會不想面對現實。沉澱幾天，看了許多追蹤的論壇前輩如軍師、Saul、GR，其實十一月中旬以來這波大跌也很多高手面對-30~80%不等的跌幅！論壇也出現許多取暖文（看來面對殺盤，安慰文對高手而言其實也很必要XD），但他們依然冷靜回顧持股變化，去詳細分析這波成長股為何財報優秀卻依然大殺，這種堅持記錄的態度應該也是值得學習的錨點（譬如多年後回顧，發現這波跌幅不過是小漣漪）。我不好受，但的確也有人跌幅比我更難受，這麼一想就稍微釋懷了些。去思考他們為何每次面對大跌依然對持股長期跑道充滿信心？這應該是面對市場回檔時最重要的課程。總之，就算面對大跌，也要堅守誠實紀錄績效的底線，才算是對自己操作負責的態度。希望多年後回頭看到這篇，能笑著告訴自己好險沒被洗出去。距離今年結束剩下三週左右的交易日，希望能有好的結果囉。
2021年11月1日 星期一
投資月報 2021.10 臉書更名Meta致力元宇宙、比特幣ETF終於上市、財報季登場科技股成焦點
本月摘要：臉書內部管理醜聞又當機，更名Meta致力元宇宙。比特幣ETF陸續上市、財報季登場，TAMAMA科技股成焦點
FAANG? MAMAA?
TAMAMA啦！TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, ALPHABET, MVRS, AMZN
❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數
NEW YORK, October 21, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in September to 117.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in August and a 0.9 percent increase in July.
“The U.S. LEI rose again in September, though at a slower rate, suggesting the economy remains on a more moderate growth trajectory compared to the first half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Delta variant, rising inflation fears, and supply chain disruptions are all creating headwinds for the US economy. Despite the LEI’s slower growth in recent months, the strengths among the components remain widespread. Indeed, The Conference Board continues to forecast strong growth ahead: 5.7 percent year-over-year for 2021 and 3.8 percent for 2022.”
“The U.S. LEI rose again in September, though at a slower rate, suggesting the economy remains on a more moderate growth trajectory compared to the first half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Delta variant, rising inflation fears, and supply chain disruptions are all creating headwinds for the US economy. Despite the LEI’s slower growth in recent months, the strengths among the components remain widespread. Indeed, The Conference Board continues to forecast strong growth ahead: 5.7 percent year-over-year for 2021 and 3.8 percent for 2022.”
美國經濟這個月的漲幅趨緩，但整體健康應無太大擔憂，現在人們在乎的反倒是供應鏈堵塞和通膨飆升，就不知道會不會燒到經濟或讓聯準會縮減熱錢，影響到股市。還是老話一句，指數投資人持續相信美國經濟，那麼主人（經濟）與狗（股價）前後散步的譬喻長期還是會趨於一致。時間飛逝，今年只剩下兩個月，用LEI的V型反彈對照大盤今年近兩成甚至更多的亮麗漲幅，相信總體經濟而不是嘗試在股價波段進出，報酬真的就很不錯了。
❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 10/29
❖本月大事
Intel 收購夢碎！GlobalFoundries 正式申請 IPO
一文理清 2021 年向 SEC 提交申請的 12 個 BTC ETF
《魷魚遊戲》一個月內觀看數超1.1億！Netflix劇集的爆紅密碼
特斯拉市值破1兆美元、獲Hertz史上最大筆10萬輛電動車大單
Facebook正式更名「Meta」！元宇宙納入未來企業願景
每個月都有不少新聞，但對公司基本面以及股價最重要的依然還是年底財報季登場，接著會有很多公司陸續發佈，需密切追蹤。
❖股價動態
今年五六月附近，個人持股策略大洗盤，算是有點賭氣性質的把ETF為主的持股轉為集中個股，希望能夠拉升回來。現在看來這個決策是對的，或者說看了別人研究這麼多年，終於狠下心來轉為這種集中持股策略。途中還是有些失敗的進出操作，導致實際報酬不如預期，但截至目前的反攻已經讓淨值再創生涯ATH，YTD%也領先原先重押的ARK系列（今年ARK真的表現不好，長遠看來或許是2020漲多後的均值迴歸，希望2022開始ARK系列的新創科技能反攻）。自己績效能有這樣拉升已經蠻開心了，但目前還是落後大盤的VTI跟QQQ或是持股相關的雲端IGV。年底剩下兩個月，迎來科技股財報重頭戲，希望可以超車囉。今年大盤受到金融、能源拉升表現很好，那斯達克科技大盤也維持穩健成長，不利的只有去年很猛的ARK系列股，但某些高手選股的雲端公司卻硬是繼續高成長，這種堅持科技板塊不分心去做今年熱門的能源、航運、加密貨幣卻依然高成長的能耐實在令人佩服，也讓自己更決定深入研究雲端產業，亡羊補牢，雖晚不遲嗎（笑）。無論如何，今年對自己的重大意義就是讓持股從ETF為主轉為多檔個股為主，希望有信心能堅持這種高波動卻也預期高報酬的作法。具體的持股跟策略等年度回顧再來詳細紀錄。
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