本月摘要：聯準會預告明年升息且縮表，高估值中小科技股續殺，但三大指數表現亮眼
❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數
NEW YORK, December 20, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 1.1 percent in November to 119.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in October and a 0.3 percent increase in September. “The U.S. LEI rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as well as a resurgence of COVID-19, pose risks to GDP growth in 2022. Still, the economic impact of these risks may be contained. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to strengthen in Q4 2021 to about 6.5 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still healthy rate of 2.2 percent in Q1 2022."
廣泛經濟依然以相當不錯的速度繼續攀高，或許這也是今年大盤各板塊平均都有不錯漲幅的關係。
❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 12/31
❖股價動態
大盤漲、拉權值、殺中小的一年。算是某種均值迴歸？2020年疫情受益板塊的SaaS產業大漲，結果到了2021年科技板塊一開始還不錯，但二月殺一波，好不容易五月打底，一路很有希望地復甦到十一月創新高，年底卻又因為通膨使得聯準會升息預警，許多高估值個股都從ATH高點殺了好幾成將近腰斬。對於2021年初就大幅買進的人來說，就算殺好幾成，仍能讓YTD有將近三～五成的傲人績效，但對半路才開始加倉的人來說無疑就是套在山頂（冷）。無論何種原因，對自己績效是個大逆風的一年。有很多想說的，但就留給年度回顧（等到2022年3月剛好滿五年）再來反省吧。
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