投資月報 2022.02 俄羅斯揮兵烏克蘭，全球展開經濟制裁

本月摘要：俄羅斯揮兵烏克蘭，全球展開經濟制裁

❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數

NEW YORK, February 18, 2022…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in January to 119.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in December and a 0.8 percent
increase in November.
“The U.S. LEI posted a small decline in January, as the Omicron wave, rising prices, and supply chain disruptions took their toll,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumers’ outlook and declines in stock prices, and the average work week in manufacturing all contributed to the decline—the first since February 2021.
“Despite this month’s decline and a deceleration in the LEI’s six-month growth rate, widespread strengths among the leading indicators still point to continued, albeit slower, economic growth into the spring. However, labor shortages, inflation, and the potential of new COVID-19 variants pose risks to growth in the near term. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 to slow somewhat from the very rapid pace of Q4 2021. Still, the US economy is projected to expand by a robust 3.5 percent year-over-year in 2022—well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent.”

❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 02/28

通膨、升息、加上俄國真正開戰，市場毫不意外陷入恐慌。

 

❖本月大事

Meta上季財報疲弱、日活躍用戶首度下滑，盤後慘跌 23%

Nvidia買下ARM夢碎！軟銀拿12.5億美元分手費

矽谷創投教父 Thiel 退出 Meta 董事會，傳投奔川普陣營

馬斯克捐贈約60億美元特斯拉股票 回應聯合國點名

見證歷史！俄羅斯股市崩盤「-50%腰斬」

瑞士總統宣布「放棄中立」：加入制裁俄

「對抗俄羅斯帝國」柏林湧現十萬人抗議，德國撥款千億提升軍備

被踢出SWIFT後 俄羅斯央行宣布關鍵利率從9.5％調升至20％

灰犀牛成真。原本輿論認為俄國只是演戲威嚇，各種揣測漫天飛布，沒想到假戲真做，普丁假動作一堆後還是侵略烏克蘭了。財報季展開，但可能是緊縮壓力太大，無論公司表現好壞，只要是高估值科技股一律殺給你看。

 

❖股價動態

三大指數繼續拉回修正，高估值的科技股繼續是重災區，而原物料和大宗商品因為俄烏戰爭影響供給，都呈現飆漲姿態。