由於最近工作有些變動,作業量增加許多(從職涯發展的角度應該算是好處!),因此網誌的投資月報先暫停更新,日後看怎樣再重啟。每個月的重要數據和新聞自己依然會收集到剪報資料夾,但為了更有效率運用時間,整理成月報發文這步驟就先省略。至於個別主題想放到網誌的依然會有空就寫。
Alex的美股投資筆記,分享個股與ETF投資策略、資產配置、國際政經、財經書籍閱讀。投資策略的本質就是提高勝率,在機率光譜提昇期望值,歡迎一起討論成長。研究興趣:行為經濟學、複雜適應系統、不確定性、交易策略、科技股。 Complexity tends to resolve itself over time, and patience is a virtue that allows time to work on your behalf.
2022年3月30日 星期三
2022年3月7日 星期一
投資月報 2022.02 俄羅斯揮兵烏克蘭,全球展開經濟制裁
本月摘要:俄羅斯揮兵烏克蘭,全球展開經濟制裁
❖Leading Economic Index (LEI) 領先經濟指數
NEW YORK, February 18, 2022…The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)
for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in January to 119.6 (2016 = 100),
following a 0.7 percent increase in December and a 0.8 percent
increase in November.
“The U.S. LEI posted a small decline in January, as the
Omicron wave, rising prices, and supply chain disruptions took their toll,”
said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of
Economic Research at The Conference Board.
“Initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumers’ outlook and declines in
stock prices, and the average work week in manufacturing all contributed to the
decline—the first since February 2021.
“Despite this month’s decline and a deceleration in the
LEI’s six-month growth rate, widespread strengths among the leading indicators
still point to continued, albeit slower, economic growth into the spring.
However, labor shortages, inflation, and the potential of new COVID-19 variants
pose risks to growth in the near term. The Conference Board forecasts GDP
growth for Q1 to slow somewhat from the very rapid pace of Q4 2021. Still, the
US economy is projected to expand by a robust 3.5 percent year-over-year in
2022—well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent.”
❖Fear & Greed Index 貪婪與恐懼指數 02/28
通膨、升息、加上俄國真正開戰,市場毫不意外陷入恐慌。
❖本月大事
矽谷創投教父 Thiel 退出 Meta 董事會,傳投奔川普陣營
被踢出SWIFT後 俄羅斯央行宣布關鍵利率從9.5%調升至20%
灰犀牛成真。原本輿論認為俄國只是演戲威嚇,各種揣測漫天飛布,沒想到假戲真做,普丁假動作一堆後還是侵略烏克蘭了。財報季展開,但可能是緊縮壓力太大,無論公司表現好壞,只要是高估值科技股一律殺給你看。
❖股價動態